“滴滴”遇“曹操”,谁将主沉浮——基于螺旋动力理论的商业热点分析

曾被国内外众多投资人亲睐的滴滴为何至今还没能上市?这应该是不少人心中的疑惑。以下,我们就将基于螺旋动力理论,对该话题进行探讨。(本文首次于2019年2月发表于微信公众号@整合螺旋动力,本次未作文字修改)

图1:螺旋动力之8层价值模因

概念注释:

模因(meme),指的是在诸如语言、观念、信仰、行为方式等的传递过程中,与基因在生物进化过程中所起的作用相类似的事物。

根据《牛津英语词典》,meme被定义为:“文化的基本单位,通过非遗传的方式特别是模仿,而得到传递。”

价值模因(value meme),指的是一种核心价值系统(core value system),一种世界观(worldview)。它是贯穿于所有的架构(structures)、决策系统(decision making system)以及文化的多样性表达(diversified expressions of culture)的组织原则(organizing principles)。—— extracted from Spiral Dynamics in Action, 2018

滴滴对外投资失利

从图2和图3关于滴滴的相关报道中可以看出,似乎滴滴运营决策的目标,主要处在图1的橙色(成就驱动)内,

但其对于运营决策的管理,似乎未能来自更高的黄色(系统思维)层级,

而更像是在红色层级,以至因「为所欲为」而导致可能最终失利?

图2:滴滴战略失误频频

图3:垄断vs共享

「软富组合」对滴滴进行战略投资

并处于橙色(成就驱动)和黄色(系统思维)层级,两者之间早就开始相互整合的战略投资人,软银中国或富士康的角色,似乎开始变得有些尴尬?

图4:「软富组合」对滴滴进行战略投资

图5:「软富」之间相互整合

也许软银中国&富士康哥俩应该早两年进入,以对滴滴的战略决策比如投资ofo等等施加足够的利好影响?



滴滴的三原色

又或因滴滴的原始基因,本就固着在了“红蓝橙”(冲动—专断—醉心于追逐利润)?

某业内人士曾表态:
“共享经济(黄色整合层级)如果以谋求垄断地位(橙色的钻营+红色的强权)为原始初衷(创业基因),必然会带来种种问题……”



哈罗:曹操!

如今,蚂蚁炼金(蚂蚁金服)不惧火烧(钱),力挺哈罗顺风来趁势打劫。而更具威胁的敌人,更可能是由实业经营转战共享经济的国内外汽车业大佬们。

敢自称「曹操」者,必有吞并八荒之志。如果考虑「曹孟德」扎实背景,其身家岂只千亿RMB?

图6:最强对手来了?

同样玩增量市场(即持续生产相关的产品比如单车,以获得多维度市场收益),ofo已然惨败:因为自行单车随地可弃,而用户的责任和自律性又难以筛选和监管。

而曹操出行玩的是自家生产的汽车,直接生产成本和维修保养费用都更为可控,取用停放时其GPS定位都更为可靠,同时车辆的日常损耗较单车低,使用寿命更大大长于单车:这些因素都将降低曹操出行的整体运营成本。

ofo之殇

请允许笔者暂时偏一下题,简单聊聊ofo。

事实上,笔者在第一次体验ofo时,就直觉它不会长久,因发现其制造工艺和质量偏低。在这种情况下,也许初期投放在大学校园运作尚可维系运营。因为大学校园内部的使用者,不论是大学生还是大学教师,多处于蓝色(严格遵从习俗规则或道德伦理)层级,从而更可能实现对共享单车的自觉维护,延长了ofo的使用寿命。

然而,一旦当柔弱的ofo被投入到校园之外的一二线城市中,在红色(自我中心,唯吾独尊)的存在数量不可小觑的「丛林」中,必然难以避免被各路「猎食者」弱肉强食的悲惨结局(被有意无意地藏匿,损坏甚至直接抛弃)。

之所以造成这一结果,笔者认为其核心决策者的认知和意识水平恐难辞其咎。如果他们能够多了解一些社会心理学知识,多一些「同理心」,应该能够提前预想到,广大的社会人士可能将会如何对待那些身骨单薄的共享单车。显然,他们的动机和思维早已深度扎根于橙色(成就驱动)层级,却可惜无缘领会来自绿色(发展并保持一颗同理心)层级的关键提示。

对于ofo来说,一方面为了迅速占有市场份额而投入大量资金生产产品(单车),另一方面又因为顾及成本而牺牲产品的品质。俗话说得好,己所不欲,勿施于人。如果是一辆决策者可能连自己都瞧不上眼,懒得去骑的劣质单车,又指望消费者会有多么爱惜?

如果历史可以重演,也许ofo会考虑投放甲单车

说曹操,曹操就到

曹操出行采用「公车公营」,这一点在形势上似乎跟传统的出租车公司相似。但前者正从黄色整合思维层级进行运作,对于处在蓝色科层组织架构的后者,属于典型的「降维打击」。而前者业已开始利用其扎实背景,尝试与一些传统出租车公司联合,瞄准了高端出行服务。

图7:「曹操」实施降维打击?

尽管曹操出行的以上举动似乎透出一丝丝国进民退的味道,但现实情况是,它在自家的田里「想种什么菜就种什么菜」。比如其随后发展出的同城快递,智慧出行,高端出行服务和传媒等等。总的来说,曹操出行可以算是一直尝试在做不同层面的整合(在黄色层级运作)。

图8:「曹操」既来,滴滴何从?

结语

至于曹操出行在未来关键时刻运作的灵活程度,及其最终资源整合的范围和力度,最终可能还是得看系在它身上的紫红蓝橙条码的牛皮带,是在脖子、腰眼还是头发丝上?


而滴滴今年在市场上的各种举动所透露出的颜色,是停留在橙+红,还是大跃进地由橙+红借绿转黄,必将成为判断其最终成功与否的风向标。

图9:橙黄?橙恐?

国内的「共享经济」市场,用通俗的说法打个比方,就像是一群身披黄绿色(系统思维+整合资源+行善意愿)斗篷,内穿橙铜锁子甲(被物欲成就感所驱动),同时两手提枪带剑(仰赖霸权)的人在械斗。

而「滴滴」和「曹操」以及其他群雄,在这场价值模因「颜色」大战的最终结局如何,且让我们拭目以待。

螺旋动力理论(Spiral Dynamics),由已故美国心理学家Clare W. Graves从1950年代开始进行理论研究,后续经由现已年逾80高龄的Don E. Beck博士和Christopher C. Cowan及其团队数十年的研究发展与实践检验提炼而成。是为解码个体,组织和社会发展变迁规律的大规模心理学应用的宝典。

Attributions to ValueMatch.net on whose work and efforts the vMeme detailed descriptions (tables) in this article are based.

Author

Frank Lin – business coach, consultant, EQ trainer. Founder of Cidrix Consulting Shanghai. Dedicated to the spread and application of Spiral Dynamics Integral in China. (ValueMatch Certified Practitioner, Spiral Dynamics integral Level 2 certified)

Email: SDi@SpiralDyanmics.cn

WeChat: QuantumSelf

Wechat Public Account: SpiralDynamics

54 Replies to ““滴滴”遇“曹操”,谁将主沉浮——基于螺旋动力理论的商业热点分析”

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